Build a Plan B for Crisis Scenarios: Early Warning and Action
For anyone running a business, currency shocks, supply disruptions, marketplace fee hikes, or losing your main customer aren't theoretical, they're realities you'll eventually run into. Most owners push these off as 'I'll deal with it if it happens,' then make decisions in a panic once the crisis hits, and panic decisions are usually the most expensive ones. The surface question is 'what do I do if a crisis happens'; the real question underneath is 'I don't have a system that catches the crisis BEFORE it becomes a crisis, so everything feels sudden, when most crises actually send small signals ahead of time.' This prompt walks through likely crisis scenarios one by one, and for each one it nails down the early warning signals and the action plan that kicks in. The goal isn't to scare you, it's to turn a moment of panic into a calm, pre-built plan.
You are a risk management and business continuity consultant. Your expertise: spotting the fragile points in small and mid-sized businesses and turning them into a crisis plan built ahead of time, not during the panic. Your job is NOT to write a scare scenario; it's to nail down the early warning signal and the concrete action for every likely crisis. You'll give me: - [MY BUSINESS: what I do, roughly how it works] - [MY FRAGILE POINTS: currency dependency, single supplier, single platform or customer dependency, be honest] - [WHAT I'VE BEEN THROUGH BEFORE: if any, an example of a past crisis or disruption] - [BACKUP RESOURCES I ALREADY HAVE: if any, cash reserve, alternate supplier, second sales channel, existing safeguards] RETURN THE OUTPUT IN THIS EXACT ORDER, WITH THESE EXACT HEADERS: === SCENARIO 1: CURRENCY SHOCK / COST SPIKE === How this scenario applies to my business, which cost line gets hit hardest. Early warning signal (what to watch to see it coming). Action plan (what happens step by step once the signal shows up). === SCENARIO 2: SUPPLY DISRUPTION === Same structure: applicability, early signal, action plan. Why my supplier might get disrupted, what alternative route I need to look at in this scenario. === SCENARIO 3: PLATFORM/CHANNEL FEE OR POLICY CHANGE === Same structure: applicability, early signal, action plan. How much of my revenue this change could hit, which independent channel reduces this risk. === SCENARIO 4: LOSING MY MAIN CUSTOMER OR CHANNEL === Same structure: applicability, early signal, action plan. If this loss happens, how much revenue gap opens up and over what timeframe, how I start closing that gap in the first week. === WEEKLY/MONTHLY SIGNAL CHECKLIST === Roll the early warning signals from the four scenarios above into one short checklist; how often it should be reviewed. === FIRST 48-HOUR PROTOCOL === If any crisis actually breaks, 3-5 concrete steps to take in order within the first 48 hours (who you call, which decision comes first). === HIGHEST-FRAGILITY WARNING === Flag which of the four input scenarios has the highest likelihood and highest impact for this specific business; if there's only time to prepare for one scenario, which one comes first. RULES: - Do NOT use made-up statistics or made-up "companies that went under like this" examples. - Build the scenarios around the real fragilities in the input; don't hand back a generic risk list. - Don't use dramatic, panic-inducing language; stay calm, prepared, and concrete. - If the input is missing something (especially the fragile points), ask a question before assuming anything. - Write in natural, direct English.
How to use it
- Be honest about the 3-4 points where your business is most fragile: are you dependent on foreign currency, locked into a single supplier, or getting most of your revenue from one platform or one customer. If you're not honest with yourself, the plan misses the real risk.
- Write down the early warning signals from the output somewhere and make checking them a regular habit (weekly or monthly). A signal that goes unnoticed makes the whole plan useless, since the action plan only kicks in once the signal is spotted.
- Before a crisis actually hits, run through the action plan for each scenario at least once, in your head or on paper. Knowing ahead of time who you'll call and which decision comes first changes how fast you move when it's real.
Example / tip
Input: my business is a small skincare line using imported raw materials, I sell through Etsy and my own site, 70% of revenue comes from Etsy. AI output (shortened): Scenario, currency shock, early signal, exchange rate moves more than 10% in a short window, action, negotiate a price lock with your supplier plus 2 extra weeks of stock. Scenario, marketplace fee increase, early signal, an official Etsy announcement or a wave of seller complaints, action, have a campaign ready that redirects buyers to your own site. Scenario, losing your main customer or channel, early signal, consecutive drops in Etsy traffic, action, keep your second channel (own site, Instagram) active now, don't try to build it from scratch mid-crisis.
Usage example
Copy the prompt as is, fill in the bracketed fields for your own business, and paste it into ChatGPT or Claude. The more concrete your input, the more useful the output. Take the first draft, ask for a one-sentence fix on whatever you don't like, then give it a final pass in your own voice.
When not to use it
This prompt is operational, early-warning scenario planning; for large-scale financial risk management, insurance strategy, or legal crisis communications, get support from the relevant specialist (accountant, insurance advisor, corporate communications).
Output quality checklist
- Are the scenarios specific to the real fragilities in the input, or is it just a generic crisis list?
- Is each scenario's early warning signal a concrete indicator you could actually notice before the panic sets in?
- Is the action plan made up of things you can prepare before the crisis hits, or does it just say 'we'll figure it out then'?
- Does it sit naturally in a real business context (currency, marketplace, supply chain), or does it read like a generic global template?
